FightforRoom215

Keystone Poll: Nutter by 10

Michael Nutter has a 10-point lead over Tom Knox, with 31 percent of the respondents to the latest Daily News/Keystone Poll saying they're behind the former Councilman.

Nutter leads in both white (37 percent) and black voters (27 percent).

Knox, who is beginning to put Nutter into the crosshairs of his direct mail campaign, has 21 percent support. Chaka Fattah, who once held a commanding lead in the Keystone Poll, fell to 13 percent support.

That's followed by Bob Brady with 11 percent and (you have to feel for the guy) Dwight Evans lags behind with a mere 3 percent.

There are still 21 percent undecided, however, and pollster Terry Madonna points to the importance of Election Day operations (which Fattah and Brady are assumed to have the best of and Knox will be paying lots of cash for) and the chance that a low-turnout election could put things into flux.

Poll stats: 385 Democratic voters between last Wednesday and Monday; 5 percent margin of error.

Meanwhile, the Inky gets around to looking at Nutter's alleged ethical indescretions that other campaigns are bandying about. The reporting seems to say it's either not so (no proof of any no-show job at Econosult as Tom Knox told viewers on NBC's Live at Issue last weekend) or things like a contract for his wife's nonprofit came about before she even started there.

As to his past political relationship with Carol Campbell, it's pretty hard to deny, but Nutter defends his pushing for a contract between her company and the Sheriff's department, a deal that eventually fell through.

A non-internal poll puts Nutter in second

Everyone doubted Michael Nutter when he released an internal poll showing him in second place — now he has some backup.

As the Next Mayor is reporting, the Pennsylvanians for Effective Government poll to be released tomorrow has Nutter moved into second place behind Tom Knox. Knox has dropped 20 percent from 22 and Nutter has improved from 12 to 18 percent.

The rest of the field goes Fattah (14), Brady (9) and Evans (7).

Evans to 'Do Something'

Tom Knox has his pasta dinners. Bob Brady has his 'Taking it to the Streets" tour.

Today, Dwight Evans launches his own direct to the voters initiative, with his "Do Something" tour. Evans starts with a tour through North Philly, where he will "emphasize that public safety is integral to building a community where education, commerce and culture can thrive."

Evans also launched a new Web site, endtheviolence.com, which includes a pledge to, well, end the violence.

The two new campaign tactics come as Evans continues to sit at the bottom of the polls, his ideas gaining as much traction as a Honda Civic on a mountain of ice.

Evans has been at the bottom of almost every poll (sometimes sharing the spot with Michael Nutter, other times with a few more points than Nutter), including the poll released yesterday by NBC10.

Tom Knox extended his lead in that poll and is now safely alone in first place with 32 percent support. Chaka Fattah (18 percent) and Bob Brady (17) follow, with Nutter pulling down 14 percent and Evans at 10. There is a 4 percent margin of error.

Maybe "I hate John Street" ads are working

It's a poll conducted by his own campaign, but a respected polling firm has Michael Nutter surging into second place this week.

Compared to his 12 percent showing in the Keystone Poll released last week, Nutter is in second with 18 percent of the vote in the poll conducted last Monday and Tuesday. He also has a lead among undecided voters, according to the campaign.

Knox leads in the poll with 27 percent of the vote, as compared to the 24 he picked up in the Keystone Poll. Chaka Fattah (15), Bob Brady (11), and Dwight Evans (6) follow. Twenty-three percent are still undecided, according to the poll of 403 likely Democratic voters. (Margin of error= +/- 5 percent).

Nutter says his poll is more realistic because it takes into effect his first round of TV ads, which started just as the Keystone Poll wsa being conducted.

"Keystone went in the field as our ads were starting," Nutter said, "people really didn't see anything. People are having a very favorable reaction to our ads and the other things I've been doing."

Nutter points to the fact that he's only missed two forums and compares his campaign style to that of Gov. Rendell.

Nutter just released his third ad of the campaign this morning. It features his daughter talking about how much she hates John Street talking about her father's accomplishments and how he's the only candidate with a child now in public school. At the end, Nutter is seen taking his daughter to school.

Brady up, Fattah down, Knox on top

Bob Brady moved up eight points and Chaka Fattah dropped nine in the newest Keystone Poll released today which shows Tom Knox all alone in the lead for the first time.

While Fattah and Brady are in a tight fight for second place (17 and 16 percent, respectively), Tom Knox sits alone in the front, with 24 percent of voters in his corner. Michael Nutter (12) and Dwight Evans (10) round out the poll, which shows that 21 percent of voters are still undecided. (The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percent).

The poll is one of, if not the most looked at polls and could go a long way toward shaping public perception of a candidates' electability six weeks before the primary. According to political consultant Larry Ceisler, it could force Nutter and Evans (dragging in the low teens in almost all polls) to start throwing more of their campaign dollars into ads.

"It's put up or shut up time," he said.

UPDATE: This Fattah quote from KYW's Mike Dunn: “They said he’s taking all these blows, he’s up against the ropes. At the end he said, ‘You didn’t understand the strategy. It was a rope a dope strategy, right?’”

Fattah's lead shrinks; Knox support up

Chaka Fattah remains the front-runner among African American voters, according to a second poll released today by the Philadelphia Tribune. Fattah has lost a bit of his edge, however, falling from 33 percent when the first poll was released in November.

Fattah pulled down 27 percent of the 400 registered black voters polled. Dwight Evans is still ranked second at 18 percent.

Tom Knox is the biggest mover in the poll, moving up 13 points since his wave of advertising hit the airwaves.

Michael Nutter (9 percent) and Bob Brady (8 percent) rounded out the field. A quarter of those polled are still undecided.

Fattah vs. the Machine

There's 10 weeks to go, sure, but if you consider the early polls prophetic the mayoral race is shaping up to include an epic battle between the field operations of U.S. Reps. Chaka Fattah and Bob Brady, versus the TV power of Tom Knox, with Dwight Evans and Michael Nutter doing their best to get their ideas out. (It will be interesting, of course, to see Evans' place in the polls since the release of his first ads.)

Philly Magazine's Sasha Issenberg takes a look this month (he does more than just write about sushi) at those deuling field operations — Brady's Democratic machine against Fattah's "parallel structure." For the non political geeks among us, field operations include, among other things, canvassing neighborhoods to push voters to a certain candidate and to the polls on Election Day.

This will be the first time a private field operation is going up against a party organization,” says Brady adviser Ken Smukler. At stake is not only an election, but the reputations of both sides. “This is the opportunity to test whether the ward leaders have really got it or not,” says [field specialist Tom] Lindenfeld. “They’re not oriented toward knocking on doors. They’re not interested in doing the kind of work we do.”

Corruption is Center City's top issue

All the polls to come out so far dealing with the mayoral race have put crime as the No. 1 issue in voters' minds. Not so in Center City.

A to-be-released shortly poll from the Center City Residents Association puts corruption as the top issue on downtown voters' minds. The online poll includes a little more than 1,000 responses from residents of neighborhoods throughout Center City, according to CCRA President Steve Huntingdon.

Corruption is No. 1, Education No. 2, Jobs and taxes No. 3 and crime comes in at No. 4.

The CCRA plans to turn the poll into a way to influence the mayoral race, Huntingdon said, with a questionnaire to be sent out shortly to the candidates.

Another poll puts crime at top

Even the city's young voters consider crime the top issue in the mayor's race.

A survey conducted by the Young America PAC, Young Involved Philadelphia and the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce's Young Professional Network found that crime/gun control and criminal justice came in as the top thing on the minds of the 489 adults polled.

The top issues following crime were mass transit, economic development, education and early education, and job growth and retention.